Which Toronto Neighbourhood Is The Safest?

By Elli Davis, July 7, 2011

Crime Scene by Alan Cleaver

Toronto is one of North America’s safest major cities. Living here is a pleasant experience, and many people dream of living in Canada’s largest city. Our beloved hometown, however, has its shady corners as well, and they are the places to be wary about. Which Toronto neighbourhoods are the safest and which are the most dangerous? (Please keep in mind that even the most dangerous Toronto neighbourhoods are really quite safe compared to other metropolises in the world.)

Can You Buy Safety?

The statistics show that the most prominent neighbourhoods have slightly elevated rates of burglaries and vehicle theft. Why is this?

Crime rates are calculated as a ratio, e.g. the number of burglaries or thefts per 1,000 citizens. Affluent neighbourhoods are often divided into larger lots and houses are scattered unevenly. The density of population is therefore relatively low in such areas. This means that any single criminal incident is statistically borne by a smaller number of people. Thus, the ratio is increased because the denominator is smaller.

On the other hand, affluent neighbourhoods attract thieves and robbers more than relatively poorer areas. This is simply because the potential “gain” is higher for thieves if they manage to break into a well-equipped house than if they “visited” a condo or a regular neighbourhood house. For these reasons, the ratio is increased because the numerator is larger. This is one of the downsides of success.

In the end, however, burglary rates (as well as vehicle theft rates) in these areas are very mild, with only 1-5 incidents per 1,000 citizens.

Fortunately, people living in larger houses have a much smaller chance of encountering burglars face-to-face, so the incidence of violent crime is lower. Whereas material possessions can be easily replaced, one’s health or life cannot. And that is what really matters.

Where to Be Careful and Why

Murders

Downtown Toronto is a melting pot of numerous cultures and ideologies. Certain tensions among these heterogeneous groups may occasionally result in violent crime, and even murder. The areas with the highest murder rates are Moss Park and Danforth Village. Both of these areas recorded virtually no murders in recent years, which means that they may soon lose this unfortunate quality.

Other areas with relatively high murder rates are "coastal" neighbourhoods such as South Parkdale, Church-Yonge, Cabbagetown, Regent Park, and Waterfront Communities. Inland, the “highlights” are Alderwood, Old East York and the Junction Area. The western part of the belt between the 401 and the 407 also reports elevated crime levels, especially around Downsview and Saint Lucie Park. Other high-crime areas are Morningside and Rouge Park in the west.

Drug Use

Most of the above areas also report higher incidence of drug use. Namely, the entire downtown area of Toronto has drug issues, followed by other coastal areas and a few West Toronto neighbourhoods.

Vehicle Theft

Vehicle theft seems to have a vastly different distribution than the former two indicators. Torontonians living downtown own fewer cars per 1,000 citizens than people who have to commute from farther north, west or east, which is also a factor in the more favourable statistics.

Excuses aside, however, vehicle theft is omnipresent and is the most likely type of crime citizens will encounter. In East Toronto, you will definitely have to lock your car in Clairlea-Birchmount and the surrounding neighbourhoods. Downsview comes up again as one of the least car-owner-friendly areas, barely beaten by Newtonbrook West, York University Heights and Humber Summit. The sad part is that incidences of vehicle theft in these neighbourhoods have been steady in the past, if not on the rise. This is to the contrary with Lambton Baby Point neighbourhood, which still ranks among the top ten for vehicle theft, but which is on a steep decline and which will likely fall off of this list in the future.

The worst neighbourhood in this regard is West Humber-Clairville. Ranking first in terms of vehicle theft, more than 1% of this neighbourhood’s citizens had their vehicle stolen in 2008. This means that roughly every 30th family experienced vehicle theft directly. What is worse, the trend does not seem to be receding, which should probably prompt the local authorities to review their policies.

Crime hits Canada by Karl Ludwig Poggemann

Burglaries

Burglaries are quite common across downtown, from South Parkdale to Danforth and even as far as Clairlea-Birchmount. The worse areas in this regard are university neighbourhoods, ranking far higher than the surrounding areas. This is an unfortunate fact that is yet to be coped with effectively. The burglary rates were at their peak in 2006 when both York University Heights and the University (of Toronto) neighbourhood reported record numbers.

Most Central Toronto neighbourhoods have relatively mild burglary rates. The exceptions are Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills, Casa Loma, Forest Hill South, and even Rosedale.

All in all, Toronto neighbourhoods rank quite differently for different types of crime. Some of the north-east areas farthest from downtown stand out more than others in average crime rates, while downtown itself is coping with its drugs issues and violent crime.

Toronto Is a Great City

Because of the relatively uneven distribution of various types of crime, it is very hard to establish which neighbourhoods are safest and which are the least safe.

The good news is that affluent neighbourhoods have visibly lower rates of drug abuse and homicides. In most of central Toronto, the number of homicides per 1,000 citizens is less than 0.2 or none(!) — and this is a 5-year average.

We should indeed be very happy to live in a city that is this safe and this pleasant despite its massive size.

If you want to learn more about the history and the current atmosphere of more of Elli’s Toronto neighbourhoods, please check out Elli’s pages on South Hill, The Annex, Deer Park, North Toronto, and Cedarvale. The guide will let you jump to other neighbourhoods as you browse.

Also, please let us know about your experiences with crime in the comments.

You might also like

1. Rosedale neighbourhood guide just published!
2. Bedford Park neighbourhood guide just published!
3. Lawrence Park neighbourhood guide just published!
4. Davisville Village neighbourhood guide just published!
5. Top 4 Features to look for in a Neighbourhood

Posted in Toronto Real Estate News, Toronto society | 1 Comment »